Sunday, September 7, 2014

DAP the winner in the Selangor MB Crisis


While Malaysians remain focused on the Selangor Menteri Besar Crisis, what many may have not noticed is that DAP is facing an internal crisis of its own. And this crisis is regarding its 2012 party election and the 2013 re-election that the Registrar of Societies (RoS) has classified as unconstitutional.

DAP is challenging the RoS in court so in the meantime nothing is going to happen. However, if the court rules that the RoS is correct and that DAP did, in fact, violate its own party constitution, the party may be facing deregistration like what happened to Umno some years back.

The Selangor MB Crisis is basically between PAS and PKR. DAP appears to be quite silent about this matter and for good reason. DAP is hoping that if this crisis is not resolved then the Selangor State Assembly may be dissolved to make way for new state elections.

Umno is not too keen on new state elections and neither is PKR and PAS. In 2008, Umno won 18 seats and MCA two, giving Barisan Nasional 20 seats in the 56-seat State Assembly. In 2013, Umno dropped to 12 with zero for MCA.

Hence if new state elections are held Umno can only win between 12-18 seats, most likely 15 at best. So it is of no benefit to Umno to participate in a state election it is never going to win anyway.

Pakatan Rakyat will contest all 56 seats and most likely win 40-41. The question here would be how would PKR, DAP and PAS divide the seats?

Out of the 56 seats, about half are Chinese-majority seats and the other half-Malay majority. Hence DAP has the potential to win about 28 seats.

DAP is preparing to contest 20 seat with 18 each for PKR and PAS. While DAP is able to win all the 20 seats it will contest (like what happened in Penang where DAP won all the sates it contested), PKR and PAS will have to ‘share’ their seats with Umno.

Hence PKR and PAS can win only about 20-21 seats combined with PAS getting lesser seats than PKR. And this would make DAP the largest party in the Selangor State Assembly.

This time around DAP will field about three to five Malay candidates. And this would mean DAP can claim the post of Selangor Menteri Besar, something they could not do in 2008 and 2013.

So it is to the benefit of DAP that the Selangor State Assembly is dissolved and new state elections are held because there are enough young Malay professionals ready to contest the election, especially when that could mean they would be given the post of the new Menteri Besar of Selangor.

No comments: